A palace coup? Not exactly, but here’s a way it might work. The Republican National Committee hasa formal rule for the occasion:
RULE NO. 9
Filling Vacancies in Nominations
(a) The Republican National Committee is hereby authorized and empowered to fill any and all vacancies which may occur by reason of death, declination, or otherwise of the Republican candidate for President [or Vice President] of the United States ... as nominated by the national convention, or the Republican National Committee may reconvene the national convention for the purpose of filling any such vacancies.
(b) In voting under this rule, the Republican National Committee members representing any state shall be entitled to cast the same number of votes as said state was entitled to cast at the national convention.
...
(d) No candidate shall be chosen to fill any such vacancy except upon receiving a majority of the votes entitled to be cast in the election.
Step One would be for Reince, the RNC’s counsel and perhaps some leadership colleagues (say, House and Senate leaders) to meet with The Donald. “Declining” in terms of the rule is the only course, for firing Trump would unnecessarily rouse his delegates and challenge the process.
I imagine they’d appeal to his ego, that there’s more to lose in a humiliating defeat at the hands of the public in November than a graceful exit now with the rest of his assets intact. Even Trump’s closest advisors, his family members, might resonate with that approach since their reputations and their heirships are at stake, too.
Perhaps — this is fantasy, remember? — the RNC will commission some pollsters (not the known GOP hacks) and a few focus groups. The polls, to show nominee Trump how very unlikely a Trump win would be. And the focus group results to explore ways he might change his campaign strategy ... and still lose.
Being leadership/establishment/connected to the major donors, the RNC moguls might offer Trump a sinecure. Or reimbursement (over time, of course) of Trump’s personal campaign losses to date. A book deal where he recounts the demeaning nature of campaigning, like kissing too many frogs or some such. Ultimately, leadership may threaten that they will have to disavow him to save legislative seats, even if that would make controlling Supreme Court nominations more difficult.
Trump knows about bargaining deals. You keep on adding positives, then switch to negatives, and increase the incentives. You can always walk away ...
Even if Trump refuses and there are leaks of such a meeting, that might firm up Trump’s 37.2% of Republican voters (caution: a made up stat) ... but it could also mightily undercut his appeal to everyone else. And Trump knows it.
Step Two is timing and process. There’s no time to conduct another convention, even if RNC leadership could control it better than the last one. So it will be up to the 168 member National Committee. As a practical matter, that means one or two dozen top leaders, abetted by their most humongous donors. They have to get the job orchestrated and protected against a leak. How to do that?
StepThree. Agree on a successor. They may have until early September to change ballots in most states. And three months — from now! — to get enough publicity for him or her to stand a chance of winning.
That means selecting someone leadership respects, one already favorably known to the public with a proven and reliable campaign style. May we have the Sorting Hat, please?
Mike Pence has been before the Convention and approved by the delegates, and he’s already on the campaign trail and not sucking up to Trump like, say, Chris Christie. Pence may be the easiest choice to reconcile with established order and reliable as can be but — can we be blunt here? — he is just not charismatic. If the goal is to diminish the criticism leaders will get within the party, Pence comes as close as possible. Otherwise ...
Pick one of the also rans in the 17 or more member field of wannabes? By definition, No! Except for Ted Cruz, whom GOP leadership not only distrusts but they despise him. Not a bat’s chance for Ted. The others are too also-ran.
MittRomney, as the senior Republican-who-looks-like-a-President. Formidable choice. Experienced as a candidate and known to the public. Six months ago, a good choice upon whom Wall Street would have lavished support. But now, he looks like a desperation play ... and he's not a true enough conservative to salve the members.
Paul Ryan? Let us count some ways. Likeability? Yes. Tried and true conservative? Yes. Already prominent in Republican politics? Yes. Wired into the establishment? Yes. Negatives? Well, the 40 or so House Freedom Caucus members might prefer another choice, but they could be bought off if Ryan’s promotion gives up a slot for a House Speaker who is more like them.
StepFour. Campaign like hell.
BottomLine. There is no good scenario here for Democrats. While we can't take defeating The Donald for granted, we can be pretty confident that if Hillary can beat anyone, it would be Donald John Trump.
If a newcomer should ride in with only two-plus months to go and campaigns 24/7 through every state — with substantive positions and a lot of Not-Hillary rhetoric … he (or she?) would steal the media spotlight. Under those circumstances, the press would pardon almost any Republican stumble. Democrats, on the other hand, would be on the defensive for weeks.
Almost certainly, we are better off with Trump at the top of the Republican ticket all the way to November.